The Miami Dolphins (3-4, fourth in the AFC East) face a must-win game on Sunday in Orchard Park, NY against the 3-4 Buffalo Bills (1p.m., CBS). 

In their Week 3 meeting, the Dolphins were demolished by Buffalo at home by the score of 41-14 thanks to a strong Buffalo rushing attack, an efficient Tyrod Taylor and an aggressive Buffalo defense that stopped anything and everything Miami threw at it. 

Six weeks later, and the Dolphins have a new coach and a new mentality. 

Here’s a look at the game plan. 

 

Offensive Game Plan 


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In its first meeting, Miami’s offensive game plan relied on quarterback Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball early and often. 

He was not very successful, completing 26-of-49 passes for 297 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. 

The two touchdowns scored by Tannehill came when the game was already well out of reach. 

Based off of that logic one would think running the ball against Buffalo is the way to go, which is correct, but not for the reasons you’d think. The Bills allow 91.9 yards per game, ranking them sixth in the NFL against the run. You’re also not going to get a lot of yards per carry either, as the Bills allow 3.8 yards per carry, which is eighth in the league. 

Yes, Miami should run the ball to set up the play action, but it has to be a balanced attack that shades more toward the pass game. None of these passes should be long-developing plays where Ryan Tannehill sits in the pocket all day, because against this Bills defense he simply won’t have that time. 

Instead, get Tannehill moving. He’s been very effective when rolled out, and that should be one way to attack the Bills defense. The other is with short passes to receivers Kenny Stills (especially in space where he can make plays utilizing his speed), Jarvis Landry, tight ends Jordan Cameron and Dion Sims, and even running back Lamar Miller

You won’t gain a lot against Buffalo’s defense, you have to keep it off balance as much as possible. A balanced attack between the run and short passes will do just that. 

 

Defensive Game Plan


Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

The Bills offense will be more dynamic in this game compared to their Week 3 matchup, which on the surface is bad news for Miami. 

LeSean McCoy was nursing an injury in Week 3, which led to Karlos Williams starting, and dominating, for the Bills. This time around, expect Buffalo to run both of them early and often. 

The good news for Miami is its run defense has improved since the last time the team faced the Bills, but how much it has improved will certainly be tested. 

One idea could be for the Dolphins to use a 5-2 front, which would include Chris McCain lining up on the outside next to Derrick Shelby (starting in place of Cameron Wake), then clog the middle with Ndamukong Suh and Earl Mitchell up the middle with Olivier Vernon on the other side with Jelani Jenkins and Koa Misi as your linebackers. 

This could work against the run and as an effective pass-rush front, however it could leave the Dolphins susceptible to Charles Clay destroying them, which he did in Week 3. A strong pass rush is imperative for the Dolphins to succeed in stopping the Bills, but with the talent the Dolphins don’t have, it will come with a price. 

 

Key Players and Matchups


Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

On offense Miami needs a strong performance from Dion Sims, both as a blocker and as a receiver. Miami will need to get off quick and short passes, and Sims can help accomplish this mission in both ways. 

It will be interesting to see how right guard Billy Turner does in his first game against the Bills, especially since he’ll be lined up against Marcell Dareus. The Bills defensive line has made a living off of dominating Miami’s offensive line, Turner’s job will be made much harder since he won’t have Ja’Wuan James at right tackle next to him. As Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post reported, James will miss the next four to six weeks

On defense, the Dolphins need Chris McCain to step up more so than any player. He’ll be used as a pass-rusher on some plays and as a QB spy on others. He hasn’t had much playing time this season, but he will need to earn his worth on Sunday. 

 

Prediction

The Dolphins will play a lot better this week than they did in their Week 3 matchup. 

The Bills won’t have such an easy time running the ball, and Miami’s offense won’t look as overmatched as it did that week either. 

However, the Buffalo Bills are a better team than the Miami Dolphins. Normally I would point out that the Dolphins have the better quarterback (they do), but that doesn’t matter when you consider that Ryan Tannehill doesn’t perform well against Buffalo. 

Buffalo still wins this game, but it will be a lot closer than you think. 

 

Prediction: Bills 23, Dolphins 17. 

Statistics and rankings provided by NFL.com. 

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