Dec
19
The Miami Dolphins and San Diego Chargers will meet at Qualcomm Stadium on Sunday afternoon in a game that’s essentially all about pride.
That’s what happens when you matchup a 3-10 team that could be playing in a totally different city next year against a 5-8 team that could see a massive house-cleaning come January.
Despite those facts, pride can inspire an NFL team, meaning there’s plenty of hope that at the very least you’ll see an entertaining football game. Philip Rivers isn’t the type of quarterback to just give up on a season, and Dolphins interim head coach Dan Campbell isn’t the type of coach who would tolerate rolling over.
So, what’s Miami’s plan of attack for Sunday?
Offensive Game Plan for The Dolphins
Lynne Sladky/Associated Press
This is a bad defense the Dolphins will be playing against.
In total, the Chargers are ranked 24th in the league, allowing 25.8 points per game and 367.4 yards per game. Against the run the Chargers are ranked 31st in yards per attempt, allowing 4.8 rushing yards per game.
That information alone should tell you Miami’s game plan: feed Lamar Miller.
Miller is 231 yards away from a second consecutive 1,000-yard season, and it’s a goal that his teammates want to see him achieve. Per Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald, center Mike Pouncey said:
“We want to make sure we get Lamar over 1,000 yards for his second straight season. I think it would be good for our offensive line. Obviously, it would be very good him, him being a free agent at the end of the season. That will be something we’re looking forward to. “
Miller wants the goal too, saying: “It’s very big for me. [Mike] Pouncey came up to me and asked me how many yards I needed and I told him. It’s always good to know that your teammates care about you as well.”
It’s actually somewhat conceivable for Miller to hit 1,000 yards during Sunday’s game, however he’d have to carry the ball 46 times at his average in order to do that.
He shouldn’t run the ball that much, as the pass game needs to be used (and effective) in order to keep the Chargers defense honest (San Diego’s pass defense is ranked 13th, but they allow an average of 8.1 yards per pass), but the majority of Miami’s offense should be based on the run game.
The optimal number we’re looking for on Sunday is 30 carries, with Miller getting at least 23. This not only takes pressure off the passing game, but it keeps Philip Rivers off the field.
Defensive Game Plan For The Dolphins
Reed Hoffmann/Associated Press
San Diego does one thing well: pass the ball.
That’s what happens when Rivers is your quarterback, and despite the fact that the rest of the team resembles a dumpster fire, he is still ranked third in the league in passing yards, 13th in touchdowns with 23 and has a passer rating of 94.5.
The Chargers can’t do much else. They might attempt to run the ball against the Dolphins’ porous (but improved) run defense, but why do that when you’re the second-worst rushing team in the league?
Expect the Chargers to pass the ball often, and Miami has to pressure Rivers in the backfield in order to throw him off.
That, combined with a ball-control offense, gives Miami the best chance to win.
Key Matchups and X-Factors
Charlie Riedel/Associated Press
Rivers will look to veteran Malcom Floyd plenty during the game, and Floyd will be matched up with Brent Grimes, a player who hasn’t looked very good all season.
Grimes will have to play his best in order to contain the Rivers-to-Floyd connection, but if that’s shut down, the Chargers can always go to another old reliable in tight end Antonio Gates.
Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press
Miami will send all of their linebackers and safeties at Gates at various points throughout the game. The best case would be to have Reshad Jones shadow Gates, as the linebackers’ play against tight ends has been a mess.
On offense, as mentioned earlier, it should be the Lamar Miller show, but with special emphasis paid to linebacker Denzel Perryman, who has been fantastic against the run, per Pro Football Focus, grading out at 9.3 for the season.
Final Prediction
Both teams should continue to fight hard to close out otherwise disastrous seasons on winning notes.
Based on the fact that the Dolphins have owned this series the last two years, there seems no reason to pick against them, despite the West Coast trip on a short week.
It won’t be the 37-0 massacre that we saw in 2014, it will be closer to the 2013 matchup that saw Miami close out the Chargers late.
Final Prediction: Dolphins 22, Chargers 17
Statistics provided by NFL.com. Advanced stats provided by Pro Football Focus.
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