Dec
5
The Miami Dolphins and Baltimore Ravens are both 4-7 and mathematically speaking, both are still in the hunt for the final AFC wild-card spot.
How each team got to their position is different, yet similar. For the Ravens, injuries on both sides of the ball are to blame. For the Dolphins, injuries can also be blamed, but the inherent dysfunction within the organization has far more to do with their status as AFC also-rans.
The two will face off Sunday afternoon in Miami (1 p.m. ET, CBS), and both teams are still as different as different can be, despite the identical records.
Here’s a look at the possible game plan that could lead Miami back to a 5-7 record and get its first win over the Ravens in eight years.
Julie Jacobson/Associated Press
Offensive Game Plan for Miami
Despite Baltimore’s issues on defense, one thing they’re still really good at is stopping the run.
The Ravens are ranked eighth in the league in run defense, allowing only 93.9 yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry. A lot of that might have to do with their poor pass defense (ranked 24th while allowing 258.6 yards per game) and the fact that teams don’t run the ball against them very often, as teams run on average 25.5 times per game against the Ravens.
Going vertical early would give Miami a leg up. Using DeVante Parker as a deep threat, the Dolphins should attempt a home run pass play on their first play of the game.
Why go with the home run pass play? Keep Baltimore’s safeties honest. You can’t do that when every pass play is only going four yards to Jarvis Landry through the air—it has to go deep. Parker is the best receiver to do this with, but it will also work with Landry and Kenny Stills (Rishard Matthews won’t be available to play on Sunday, per Adam Beasley of the Miami Herald.)
Once the passing game is established, grind it out and run the ball. Ideally, the Dolphins should run the ball 30 times splitting the carries between Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi, with Miller getting a slightly heavier load. That’s not counting read-option runs used by Ryan Tannehill, a weapon not used often but effective when put in action.
Overall, Miami should run the ball more than they pass it, but when they do pass it, go big against a team that has allowed some big gains through the air.
Ron Schwane/Associated Press
Defensive Game Plan for Miami
The Ravens don’t have a bad offense, but don’t be fooled by their season offensive numbers.
Ranked 11th in yards gained and 15th in points scored, the Ravens offense is a different offense without quarterback Joe Flacco.
Even before Flacco‘s injury, the team had difficulty running the ball, only running for 98.5 yards per game. Alternatively, they passed the ball fairly well, yet it hasn’t had too much of an impact.
On Sunday they could have more of an impact by throwing to their tight ends, a known Dolphins weakness. With receivers that don’t inspire much fear, the tight ends and running backs will make up the bulk of Baltimore’s offensive threats.
Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press
Key Players and Matchups
DeVante Parker has to be an integral part of the Dolphins offensive attack.
Parker should get the snaps that would go to Rishard Matthews, and can add a much more vertical presence that creates space for the Dolphins to run the ball more.
Miami will also have to hope that Mike Pouncey, who will play on Sunday (per Beasley), is healthy enough to play every snap. Jamil Douglas had plenty of difficulties as he had played center for the first time in a full game last week.
Nick Wass/Associated Press
For the Ravens, keep an eye on tight end Crockett Gillmore, who is currently Baltimore’s second-most prolific active receiver, with 32 catches for 405 yards and four touchdowns. Running back Javorius Allen has yet to truly break free, however, he might be looking for his first big NFL outing against a 31st-ranked Dolphins run defense.
The most important defensive player for the Dolphins is Reshad Jones, who should cover Gillmore at times and will have to diagnose run plays as usual.
Prediction
Despite the firing of offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, I don’t see much change from the Dolphins.
The improvement has to come from the players, and if you don’t see it the first 11 games of the season, I can’t see why you’d see it in the final five games.
The Ravens, despite missing Flacco, Steve Smith and other impact players, are still better than the Dolphins and a matchup nightmare. That will remain the case come Sunday.
Final Prediction: Ravens 27, Dolphins 10
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