Nov
21
The Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys find themselves in the same situation going into their Week 11 tilt set for Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on Fox.
Both teams could see their faint playoff hopes disappear with a loss. Miami is 4-5 and separated by four teams from the final playoff spot, but it’s only one game behind the holders of that playoff spot: the 5-4 Buffalo Bills (Note: The Dolphins are technically two games behind the Bills, who would hold the tiebreaker over Miami if the two finished with identical records due to the Bills sweeping the season series).
Dallas may be 2-7, but it’s only 2.5 games behind the New York Giants (on a bye week) for the NFC East lead.
These standings make Sunday’s game at Sun Life Stadium a playoff game, with the winner poised to move up in the standings, while the loser is one step closer to mathematical elimination.
How do the Dolphins game-plan for the Cowboys, a team that will look completely different when it takes the field on Sunday from what it has been in its last seven games?
Offensive Game Plan
Brad Penner/Associated Press/Associated Press
The Dallas Cowboys defense is a good one.
The unit holds responsibility for why the Cowboys have been in so many games until the last moments. It’s hard to find a loss during this recent Cowboys’ seven-game losing streak that you can squarely blame on the defense.
The statistics paint the picture of a middle-of-the-road defense, though, as the Cowboys rank 19th in points allowed per game with 23.8, 14th in pass defense by allowing 241.2 yards per game in the air and 15th in run defense, allowing 108.6 yards per game.
Overall, the Cowboys rank 16th in total defense, and the Dolphins can attack them with a 60-40 split toward the run.
There’s no excuse for the Dolphins to abandon the run game, as the team should register at least 30 carries on Sunday, split up with 18 going to Lamar Miller and 12 going to Jay Ajayi. The Dolphins run for 102.7 yards per game but with an average of 4.8 yards per carry while averaging 21.7 carries per game.
That number of attempts will be too little for the Cowboys, a team that will be waiting for the Dolphins to pass the ball in order to tee up on quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill should get some carries as well, giving him the option to roll out and look for an open receiver. If one isn’t available, he should have the option to run at least once during the game, which could give the Dolphins a big play.
Another reason for the Dolphins to run the ball frequently? The weather.
Per the National Weather Service, it’s expected to rain all weekend, with an 80 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms happening at game time. These conditions are not conducive to an all-out aerial assault, but they favor winning it in the trenches.
Steven Senne/Associated Press/Associated Press
With DeVante Parker not featured on the injured list, he should be available on Sunday, so in the passing game, he should get some use on long pass attempts while slowly working his way into the offense on intermediate attempts.
No matter who winds up catching the ball, the Dolphins have to make the run game the centerpiece of their offense, as it will set up the play action and, most importantly, keep Tannehill off the ground.
Defensive Game Plan
Brandon Wade/Associated Press/Associated Press
You can’t just throw out the Cowboys’ offensive stats and get a good read on this team.
The Cowboys will be welcoming back Tony Romo on Sunday for the first time since Week 2. Romo has only started two games for Dallas this season, but it won both of those games.
This will also be the first game since Week 1 that the Cowboys will have a healthy Romo and a healthy Dez Bryant. Bryant came back in Week 8, and since his comeback, he has 12 receptions for 161 yards and one touchdown.
But remember, that was without Romo. So how does Miami counter this? It’ll need constant pressure.
The Dolphins defense has a lot of holes Romo can exploit. Per Andrew Abramson of the Palm Beach Post, Jelani Jenkins is doubtful for Sunday’s game, while Koa Misi is questionable. This means you will see a lot of rookies Neville Hewitt and Zach Vigil.
Miami has already had problems with its starters covering tight ends, and this week, the Dolphins will not only have the inexperienced Hewitt covering Dallas’ tight end, but also future Hall of Famer Jason Witten.
In the secondary, Brent Grimes will cover Bryant. While Grimes has the athleticism to cover Bryant, Bryant does have him size-wise and will get some catches based simply off of that.
Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Because of that, Miami’s defensive line has to step up and make sure Romo doesn’t get the time to find Dez, Witten or any of the Dallas receivers and tight ends. Not only will Ndamukong Suh have to have a repeat of his playoff game against the Cowboys from last year (a game where he recorded three tackles and two sacks while leading the Lions to a six-sack day), he’ll have to exceed that performance.
Olivier Vernon will have to step it up in a way he hasn’t performed all season. Vernon’s in a contract year this season, but you wouldn’t know it from how undisciplined he has played.
The Cowboys should also see plenty of Chris McCain, who’s hit on Sam Bradford last Sunday changed the complexion of the game. Lining up in a 5-2 formation or having McCain play as a defensive end will help out a lot.
Another factor to watch out for is Dallas’ run game. The Cowboys rank ninth in the NFL in rushing yards, running for 119 yards per game thanks to a stout offensive line. Against Suh‘s Lions in last year’s playoffs (with DeMarco Murray at running back), the Cowboys only ran for 73 yards as a team, but most of that can be pinned on the fact they got behind big early in a game they would eventually win. Miami will have to limit the Cowboys’ run attack in the same way.
There is the question of who is in Dallas’ backfield, though, as Darren McFadden is listed as questionable with a groin injury, per Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News. If McFadden can’t go, Robert Turbin, who has 60 yards on 18 carries this season, and Rod Smith will get the carries.
Key Players and Matchups
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas will try to get the ball to Witten early and often. With the injuries surrounding the Dolphins at linebacker, it will be up to undrafted rookie Neville Hewitt to cover Witten. He shouldn’t be alone in this, though, as safety Reshad Jones, who has been playing at an All-Pro level all season, should get some time covering Witten throughout the game.
On offense, it should be the Miller and Ajayi show. As mentioned earlier, the Dolphins should get at least 30 rushing attempts on Sunday. This adds more responsibility to the offensive line, specifically guard Billy Turner, who has been great this season, as well as center Mike Pouncey and left guard Dallas Thomas.
Miami will entrust left tackle Branden Albert with blocking Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy. Hardy is a player to keep an eye on, as he is Dallas’ most aggressive pass-rusher. Good pass-blocking out of the backfield also will be important, which goes back to Ajayi and Miller.
Prediction
In my game preview, I predicted a 22-20 Cowboys victory. I went off the fact that Dallas has a lot more talent than Miami on both sides of the ball, and that in the end, the game will be decided by who has the ball last.
This weather forecast changes my prediction. It will be a wet one on Sunday, and weather is the NFL’s ultimate equalizer.
It’s hard enough to come back from a two-month absence with an injury as it is, but in inclement weather, it’ll be that much tougher for Romo. Weird turnovers happen even to the healthiest of teams in situations like that.
The score will be low, and the advantage is with the Dolphins.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 18, Cowboys 12
Statistics courtesy of NFL.com.
Comments
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.