Nov
14
The Miami Dolphins (3-5) travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles (4-4) with little to no hope of salvaging this disaster known as the 2015 season (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
The last time the Dolphins made the trip north to the City of Brotherly Love was when they faced the most lost of lost seasons, finishing 1-15 in 2007.
This time around the Dolphins still have some semblance of a pulse, but it will take a lot in order to execute a possible turnaround. Miami has to win at least six of its final eight games to be considered a playoff team, which itself is a mighty difficult task.
The Eagles are still playing for a shot at the NFC East title, and while a loss to the Dolphins won’t exactly doom their chances, it will definitely give rise to questions about how the team was constructed and if they can remain neck-and-neck with the New York Giants.
Both teams expect to come out hungry on Sunday, but what plan will the Dolphins attempt to execute against Philadelphia? What plan should be executed? Can any plan be executed by this Dolphins team?
Here’s a look at the potential game plan for the Miami Dolphins.
Offensive Game Plan
Bill Wippert/Associated Press
The Miami Dolphins are going to gain a ton of yards on Sunday regardless of the game plan.
The Eagles defense gives up a lot of yards, but not quite as many points. They rank 10th in points allowed, allowing 20.5 points per game, but they allow an average of 366.8 yards per game, which is 19th in the league.
The Dolphins offense threatens but doesn’t score, ranking 13th in yards per game with 357.9, but only ranking 21st in points scored with an average of 21.4 points per game.
The Eagles defense is dependent on turnovers. They rank fourth in interceptions, picking off 12 passes this season, but are ranked 21st against the pass. With such an opportunistic defense, the first plan should center around taking care of the football, but that’s basic knowledge regardless of your opponent.
The plan of attack for the Dolphins should again be balance, but not as much balance as you would think.
Bill Wippert/Associated Press
As I’ve said in just about every game plan piece I’ve written this year, the Dolphins have to run the ball early and often. The Eagles allow 112.9 rushing yards per game (ranked 21st), and when they have lost, it has been because of the damage done through the ground game. The best examples of this have been against Carolina when the Panthers ran for 204 yards, and against Washington when the Eagles allowed 127 yards.
Those are Philly’s last two losses of the season, and they featured offensive game plans it would behoove the Dolphins to emulate. The Dolphins only rush for 103.2 yards per game, but they are 31st in rushing attempts with 21 per game. On average, the Dolphins pick up 4.9 yards per carry, which is second in the NFL.
When they average that many yards per carry, it’s a good idea to ask why they don’t run more. The Dolphins should call at least 35 run plays, distributing them between Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi.
A solid run game also sets up Miami’s passing offense, and against Philadelphia’s opportunistic pass defense, limiting quarterback Ryan Tannehill‘s passing attempts under 30, rolling him out to avoid sacks (the Eagles have 19) and even using Tannehill in read-option plays is a recipe for scoring points and prevailing on the offensive end.
Defensive Game Plan
Bill Wippert/Associated Press
Philadelphia’s offense isn’t very different from Miami’s in the sense that the passing game is limited while the run game can be lethal to defenses.
The only difference is that in Philadelphia, the run game is featured, while the pass game is used sparingly. I should also mention that Miami’s pass offense does have more upside than the Eagles pass offense, but that’s another story.
Miami is the second-worst team in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 142.1 yards per game. It’s an obvious weakness that Eagles head coach Chip Kelly is more than willing to exploit with a run offense that averages 121.6 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry.
The solution to this is for Miami to force Eagles quarterback Sam Bradford to beat them. This would involve using a defense that stacks the box, putting safety Reshad Jones up close enough to the line of scrimmage that he would serve as a fourth linebacker. Think of it as a 4-4 defense if you’d like.
This plan works because Jones is better than any of Miami’s linebackers at shooting the gaps and getting stops. While it doesn’t show respect for the Eagles’ passing game, it’s a passing game that doesn’t deserve respect at this point in time.
The safer gamble is that Bradford and Philadelphia’s receivers fail to capitalize on a short-handed secondary, rather than Miami’s base defense stopping the Eagles’ run game. The Eagles are 17th in the NFL in pass offense, while Bradford has 10 interceptions.
As for the pass game, most of Philly’s damage has been in the short passing game, which is even more of a reason to stack the box with eight or nine men.
Key Players and Matchups
Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press
Miller and Ajayi should be Miami’s offensive stars of the afternoon.
The two players should combine for at least 40 touches both as runners and receivers. Ajayi‘s presence would help Miami’s run game in short-yardage situations, specifically in the red zone where he’s a threat not just as a runner, but as a receiver out of the backfield. We saw glimpses of what he can do against the Bills; now it’s time to fully unleash him.
On defense, Reshad Jones is your main man for Miami, as he will be an important part of its run defense. At times I’d even assign safety Michael Thomas to play just as shallow as Jones in an attempt to seal up the run game.
For the Eagles, keep an eye on tight end Zach Ertz, a player who can hurt the Dolphins badly like most tight ends. He currently has 29 catches for 314 yards, and while he doesn’t have a touchdown yet this season, the Dolphins do have a tendency to make tight ends look amazing. Ertz likely won’t be an exception.
Darren Sproles should also put fear into you as he takes on the Dolphins defense, as he will be targeted frequently when the Eagles decide to pass the ball. He’ll do most of his damage with yards after the catch, which is another reason why the Dolphins should stack the box.
On defense, keep an eye out for Fletcher Cox, who will go up against Branden Albert. Cox has five sacks and three forced fumbles this year.
Prediction
A loss for the Dolphins moves them to 3-6 and practically kills off their playoff chances. You might say their playoff chances are all dead, but I’d instead go with mostly dead. To quote Miracle Max in The Princess Bride, mostly dead is slightly alive, which is where the Dolphins are right now.
To continue with the movie quotations, this week you’ll hear this one from Michael Corleone paraphrased by Dolphins fans: Just when you thought you were out, they pull you back in.
Why will the Dolphins win? They will be able to move the ball against the Eagles’ defense, while forcing turnovers on offense.
This time of the season, you’ll often see teams lose games they shouldn’t lose. The Eagles should not lose to the Dolphins, especially not at home. Yet they will.
Something else to keep in mind: The Eagles are entering a rather easy part of their schedule, but just last week, they pulled off an emotional road win against their division rival Dallas Cowboys. The potential for a letdown game is in play for the Eagles, and it’s a potential that benefits the Dolphins.
Miami wins in a close one, 26-20, thanks to the strength of its run game and a solid performance from Tannehill.
Score Prediction: Dolphins 26, Eagles 20.
Statistics provided by NFL.com.
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