Oct
17
The 1-3 Miami Dolphins hope to begin a new era on Sunday as they take on the 1-3 Tennessee Titans (1 p.m. ET, CBS).
Based on records, you’d think that the Dolphins would have a great chance of notching their second victory of the season. In addition to being 1-3, the Titans have yet to win a home game in 2015.
You can’t go solely based off records, though, as these two teams with the same record have traveled different paths to get there.
Miam’s 1-3 is the ugliest 1-3 in the NFL. Its one victory in Week 1 over Washington was an ugly win where it couldn’t stop the run, refused to run the ball and was under constant pressure. That game turned out to be a harbinger of things to come as the same problems resurfaced in its next three games, all of them losses, with the last two games being double-digit defeats.
Tennessee also won its opener but looked impressive in doing so. While the Titans haven’t won a game since then, two of their three losses were against teams that will likely be in the postseason (Indianapolis and Buffalo), and in the two losses, the combined margin of defeat was three points.
Based on that information, the Titans have been a better team than the Dolphins in 2015. On top of that, Miami does not match up very well with Tennessee.
How does Miami counter this? What should be the game plan?
Offensive Game Plan
Lynne Sladky/Associated Press/Associated Press
What the Miami Dolphins are doing on offense isn’t working.
Miami ranks 31st in rushing yards per game at 69.3, while Lamar Miller, a 1,000-yard rusher in 2014, thus far only has 131 yards in the first four games of the season.
The reason for this is partially the play-calling, as the Dolphins barely use the run game, only running the ball 65 times and averaging 16 carries per game. They average 4.3 yards per carry, which isn’t bad, but it’s still a part of the game that’s greatly underutilized.
The Titans defense ranks first against the pass, allowing an average of 166.5 passing yards per game while sacking the quarterback 13 times. That’s not good news for a Dolphins team that has allowed 10 sacks and passes the ball almost 43 times per game. Against the run, the Titans allow 117 yards per game, ranking 23rd in the league.
This seems so simple to figure out: run the ball. Run defense is a major weakness for the Titans, as those stats above have shown, and while Tennessee’s pass rush is one of the best in the league, it can be overpowered at the line of scrimmage when you run.
That fits into the plan that head coach Dan Campbell seems to have. As Antwan Staley pointed out in the Palm Beach Post, Campbell wants to be a much more physical team that runs the ball more in order to set up the play-action pass but also get quarterback Ryan Tannehill in a better rhythm.
“Different ways that you set up the protection,” Campbell said. “Max-protection, as we may keep an extra tight end in. Being able to run the ball will also help because that will set up the play-action pass, which will help the quarterback.”
The Dolphins will get some help, as left tackle Branden Albert and tight end Dion Sims are expected back. The Dolphins’ Friday injury report lists Albert as being questionable for Sunday, while Sims, recovering from a concussion suffered in Week 1, is listed as probable.
As for the pass game, running the ball to set up the pass would work well. As good as Tennessee’s pass defense has been, it does allow big plays. While it only allows 166.5 yards per game through the air, the Titans allow 7.9 yards per pass. Like with Tennessee’s weaker run defense, Miami’s offense must exploit this. Using DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills more would be a start, but that won’t mean anything if the Dolphins can’t get their run offense going.
Defensive Game Plan
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The Titans offense is one you’d expect of a team with a very good offensive line, good-to-potentially great weapons and a rookie quarterback.
It’s ball control, and that should create a rather scary proposition for Miami.
The Titans run for 118.8 yards per game while running the ball 29 times per game. Considering the Dolphins’ struggles against the run, where they allow 160.5 yards per game, that’s not a very good sign.
This goes back to the offense, as it would help the Dolphins to play defense while playing offense. A ball-control type offense would work well for Miami, but only if it ends with scoring touchdowns—not field goals. Doing that forces the Titans to pass, and while Miami’s pass defense isn’t very good either, you’d rather take your chances against the Titans’ passing attack.
Not that it’s an easy proposition either. The Titans only pass for an average of 232 yards per game but average 8.0 yards per pass play. This again is the byproduct of quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Mariota is allowed to let it fly when he does pass the ball. He has the targets to do it in Kendall Wright (15.1 yards per reception), Justin Hunter (14 yards per reception), tight end Anthony Fasano (18 yards per reception) and rookie Dorial Green-Beckham, a player with only three receptions but two of them for touchdowns.
The Titans offense can be stopped, but it will take increased production from what has been a dormant defensive line and a better scheme. There’s no use sending Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon into coverage. Those players will have to crash the line of scrimmage on almost every play.
Uncredited/Associated Press/Associated Press
One good idea because of Vernon’s struggles against the run would be more playing time for Derrick Shelby, whom Pro Football Focus has graded at 4.0 versus the run. While this is thinking outside of the box, another good idea would be to at times come out with a 3-4 defensive front against the pass featuring Ndamukong Suh to the right, Shelby to the left and Jordan Phillips up the middle.
To go along with that, have Cameron Wake play one outside linebacker and Vernon line up on the other side, while Koa Misi and Jelani Jenkins play the two interior linebacker spots.
It’s different from anything the Dolphins have done, but it accomplishes two goals. First, it provides more punch with the pass rush. Second, it allows Miami to better contain the Titans’ strong screen-pass game.
Key Players and Matchups
James Kenney/Associated Press
A matchup to look forward to is between Tennessee left tackle Taylor Lewan and Miami defensive end Olivier Vernon. While Vernon has had his struggles this year, Lewan has been strong, allowing only two sacks so far, per Pro Football Focus.
Lewan‘s main issue has been penalties. If Vernon is able to beat Lewan to start the game, you’ll see Lewan start to hold a bit more, causing penalties and backing up the Titans offense. This will force those 2nd- and 3rd-and-longs that help defenses pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. Lewan had issues with this against Buffalo, as he was rated at minus-1.7 in penalties against the Bills in Week 5.
Alan Diaz/Associated Press/Associated Press
Another Dolphins defensive player who will be huge will be Reshad Jones. Jones has been Miami’s best defensive player and will be tasked with helping to cover many of the Titans’ weapons. In the red zone, he should zone in on covering his former teammate, Anthony Fasano. Elsewhere, he’ll help a banged-up and shallow Dolphins secondary. It will need all of the help it can get against the Titans receivers.
Prediction
The Dolphins will likely attempt to do most of what I pointed out in this article, something I knew wouldn’t happen two weeks ago when I pointed out how they should play against the Jets, before doing exactly as I thought and completely ignoring it.
The question is, will it be enough? Unless they can do what I suggest they do well, no. I don’t trust this team to do that well if for no other reason than the fact that it will be their first time using said game plan.
On top of that, if a new, more run-based game plan doesn’t work when first implemented, that’s when you’ll see the Dolphins go back to their old habits that have made them look as bad as they did through the first four games.
I won’t pick the Dolphins to win a game until they do so. While their chances should be good this week, they are still facing a team that can (and will) exploit Miami’s many weaknesses. This might be Miami’s best chance for a victory this season, yet I still have it falling short.
It should be a close and competitive game, though, one worth watching, even if the Titans do as I see them doing and defeating the Dolphins 23-20.
Statistics provided by NFL.com, and advanced statistics provided by Pro Football Focus.
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