Sep
19
After a grueling Week 1 victory, the Miami Dolphins (1-0) once again find themselves as the road favorites, but this time by 4.5 over the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1), per Odds Shark.
Prior to the season, this matchup appeared to be a tougher one for Miami. Jacksonville boasts a more aggressive defense and in Denard Robinson has the type of running back that has killed the Dolphins defense in recent seasons. After the performance of Alfred Morris against Miami in Week 1, as well as the slow start the offense got off to, that thought has not changed.
How do the Dolphins defeat the Jaguars? Here’s a look at what should be Miami’s game plan going into this interstate battle.
Michael Conroy/Associated Press
Offensive Game Plan
Jacksonville’s defense is a lot better than advertised and a whole lot more aggressive. Third year head coach Gus Bradley, formerly of the Seattle Seahawks, brought along Seattle’s aggressive defense with him to Jacksonville, a defense Thomas Beeker of SB Nation site Field Gulls described as a “4-3 defense with 3-4 elements” with emphasis on the Leo position, which is a weakside edge-rusher.
What makes the Leo—played by former Seahawk Chris Clemons on the Jaguars—so important is how varied he can be. In one play, he’ll line up with his hand down in the dirt in a stance similar to that of a defensive end. The very next play, you might see him standing up in a manner similar to that of a linebacker.
Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press
With Clemons rushing on the weakside, the onus is on left tackle Branden Albert to block him on Sunday. When the Dolphins played Jacksonville last season, Albert came out on top in that matchup, with Pro Football Focus grading him out at 2.1 as a pass-blocker with no quarterback hits allowed while PFF had Clemons graded out at minus-1.3 as a pass-rusher.
Jacksonville still registered three sacks and three hurries against Miami in that contest, but as a whole, Miami’s offensive line was solid in pass protection. Where the team really shined was blocking for the run, where Mike Pouncey (playing right guard) and right tackle Ja’Wuan James graded the highest.
Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press
This allowed Lamar Miller to run for 78 yards on 14 attempts, with the majority of those yards coming while running to the right thanks to the blocking of James. Miller ran for 40 yards behind James on only three attempts, per Pro Football Focus, including a run for 30 yards.
It will be more difficult to get so many runs to the right this time around, as Jacksonville has former Dolphin Jared Odrick as its new defensive end on that side—left on the defensive side. Odrick did struggle against Carolina in Week 1, grading out at minus-2.1 against the run and minus-2 against the pass, but from what we have seen from him in the past, there is no doubt he is very good against the run.
The run game is what will breathe life into Miami’s offense and should be used early for greater effect. Last season, the run game was able to set up a 50-yard deep completion between Ryan Tannehill and Mike Wallace and could do the same on Sunday, only with Kenny Stills taking Wallace’s place.
Miller should get at least 20 carries against a defense that allowed 105 yards in Week 1. Tannehill should get a few carries in the read-option as well to truly keep Jacksonville’s defense on its heels.
Marc Serota/Associated Press
Defensive Game Plan
It doesn’t get more simple than this: Pressure Blake Bortles.
In last season’s meeting, Bortles was pressured 17 times and sacked on four occasions by Miami’s defense, which caused Bortles to be intercepted twice, resulting in a pick-six from Louis Delmas and another one from Brent Grimes, and fumble the ball once when he was forced to run up the middle before being met by Jelani Jenkins, whose hit forced said fumble.
The fumble led to a field goal for Miami, meaning that out of the 27 points scored by the Dolphins, 17 came from mistakes made by Bortles.
Keeping up that pressure will be key. While guards Brandon Linder and Zane Beadles were very good against the Panthers, the rest of the line was shaky, leading to Bortles being under pressure eight times, resulting in four sacks and two interceptions.
Where Jacksonville can kill Miami is with the run game, which was effective against the Dolphins in 2014. This is assuming Jacksonville uses Denard Robinson, as rookie T.J. Yeldon is the type of running back Miami has had better luck with stopping.
One other thing to look at is the fact Jacksonville’s blocking scheme is more of a power run-based scheme, meaning you won’t see as many of the cut blocks that neutralized the Dolphins defensive line as you did against Washington. This should by itself make Miami’s run defense that much more formidable.
Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press
Key Players and Matchups
Jacksonville ran over Miami through the use of Denard Robinson in the backfield in their 2014 contest, with Robinson running for 108 yards on 18 attempts, including a 41-yard scamper. Keeping an eye on Robinson will be key for the Dolphins linebackers, who not only have to account for him as a run threat but as a pass-catching threat out of the backfield as well.
This is where Kelvin Sheppard has to step up. Sheppard was a void against Washington’s run game, grading out at minus-1.2 while only recording two tackles. He will at the very least have to keep an eye on Robinson when he’s in the game.
Patrick Semansky/Associated Press
On offense, Miami’s use of Lamar Miller will be a big factor. Miller was solid against Jacksonville in 2014, and with the performance the Jaguars had against Carolina’s running attack in Week 1, there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case again.
The Dolphins might also want to give some snaps to Jake Stoneburner. Stoneburner can help out as a blocker, thus allowing Jordan Cameron to line up as a receiver on some plays.
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Prediction
For the second straight week it’s this simple: Miami is the better team with the better quarterback.
Ryan Tannehill will still be the key, but asking him to be better than Blake Bortles is not asking for too much.
Tannehill will be better than Bortles, but the passing game will be a conservative one. Miami has two divisional games lined up after Week 2 and will likely save their bells and whistles for those contests.
A steady diet of short passes and Lamar Miller, with maybe one or two big-bomb attempts, will guide Miami’s offense.
On defense, the Dolphins should dominate, holding Jacksonville to one touchdown. However the Jaguars, if they extensively use Robinson, should be able to get into field-goal territory at least three times.
Expect Miami’s defense to pick up a score too, leading Miami to a 24-16 victory over the Jaguars, further cementing their role as the best team in the state of Florida.
Statistics provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
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