LA CORUÑA, Spain (VN) — Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo) is in the driver’s seat to win the 2014 Vuelta a España. He holds a solid lead over his most dangerous rivals, and his confidence is growing by the kilometer. With the most dangerous stages behind him, his team is ready to ride until their legs fall off to deliver Contador to yet another grand tour victory Sunday in Santiago de Compostela.

Contador, 31, has been rock-solid throughout the Vuelta, surpassing expectations when he started the Spanish tour with an uncertain leg injury, matching the accelerations in the first week. When he roared across the individual time trial, taking time on nearly all of his major rivals, Contador began to believe. Three decisive stages across the steep mountains of Asturias saw Contador roll into the five stages in Galicia fully in control.

Yet there’s a strange sense of tension around the Tinkoff-Saxo bus. Everyone knows, with Contador the first to admit, that his Vuelta is far from won. Five tricky stages across the hill country of Galicia stand between Contador and his third Vuelta crown. No one inside the Tinkoff-Saxo bus is taking anything for granted, above all, Contador. Here are five things that could derail Contador:

Froome goes zoom!

Contador paid Froome his biggest compliment last week when he called the Kenya-born rider his most “challenging rival of my career.” That says a lot for a rider who’s locked horns with the likes of Lance Armstrong, Cadel Evans, the Schleck brothers, and Vincenzo Nibali. Froome humiliated Contador in the 2013 Tour, an experience that marked Contador heavily, prompting him to redouble his efforts going into 2014.

Contador is fearing that Froome, who also came into this Vuelta at less than optimum form, hasn’t given up on trying to win the Vuelta. It took everything Contador had Monday to match Froome up La Farrapona, and his counterattack only took 15 seconds out of the Sky rider. Contador wants to avoid the scenario where Froome attacks long on Ancares, takes back enough time to make the final-day, 10km time trial in Santiago de Compostela decisive.

‘Mala suerte’

In Tuesday’s press conference, Contador said his biggest fear is dumb luck. A crash, an untimely puncture, illness, or a moment’s lapse in concentration can undo weeks and months of hard work. He was reminded of that lesson during the Tour in July, when he hit the deck at high-speed on an otherwise routine descent in the Vosges. Contador is an excellent bike-handler, and rarely crashes, but the Tour crash sent a shockwave across the Contador camp.

The Spaniard also recognizes that the final five stages in Galicia will require astute racing skills. The roads are narrow, often with less-than-ideal surfaces. There’s rarely a flat road in Galicia, and danger lurks at every corner. The weather forecast looks fairly benign for Galicia, which is lucky, considering fierce storms can broil in the northern Atlantic, packing rain, winds, and cold temperatures. So far, Contador has been lucky. He’s hoping it holds out for five more days.

His leg(s) gives out

Many are wondering how Contador can even be close to winning the Vuelta just weeks after breaking his leg at the Tour. To put things in perspective, Contador suffered a hairline fracture at the top of his tibia-fibula when he crashed in the Vosges. It’s not as if he shattered his femur in two. Contador began treatment almost immediately after crashing out of the Tour, with specialists from Madrid flying to his home in Switzerland to treat him. Contador was able to sit on the bike within five days of crashing out of the Tour. One team staffer said Contador suffers more pain sleeping at night or walking than he does spinning the pedals. But Contador admitted Tuesday that his form is nowhere near as good as it was in July. He said he got through the first week thanks to his “class,” and only began to feel like he was recovering full strength during the second week. He races each stage with his right knee wrapped in tape, and undergoes physiotherapy after each stage. He fears that his right leg will suddenly give out on him, and he won’t have the firepower to match the accelerations in the uphill finales. So far, that hasn’t been a problem.

Ambush!

Galicia is ambush country. The roads are narrow and twisting. The hills are steep. It’s a roller coaster out there. If Contador were the one behind, he’d be licking his chops at the jigsaw profiles over the next four stages. Contador said he must be “attentive” in the coming days, and that means he will have his radar fully tuned onto what Sky, Movistar, and Katusha are doing at every moment of the stage. When Contador famously ambushed Joaquim Rodríguez (Katusha) in 2012, he noticed that his nemesis was lagging behind on unrated rollers early in the stage. Contador improvised, attacking when no one expected it, and he ended up with perhaps his greatest coup of his career.

Contador will also have his antennae up to watch for collusion between Movistar and Katusha. Both Valverde and Rodríguez still need to shed Froome to assure their spots on the podium, setting up the possibility of cooperation between the two Spanish riders who typically are at each other’s throats. Sky remains a force, and will be looking to at least put Froome in position to try to win. Contador will be wary about letting himself get into a situation where Sky, Movistar and Katusha could isolate him. The best strategy is to remain aggressive, but that all depends on how good Contador’s legs are feeling. So far, he’s been setting the tempo of the race. Contador knows if he can arrive to the base of Ancares with the lead he has now, he has the confidence that he can hang on.

D., all of the above

For Contador to lose this Vuelta, he will need a few of the above elements to coincide for him to truly tumble out of the leader’s jersey. It will take more than a flat tire, or a strong attack from Froome, for him to lose the Vuelta. But a flat tire on Ancares with 6km to go, with Froome on the surge, well, that could present some complications. It’s hard to imagine that Rodríguez and Valverde would ever collaborate, especially with something that is orchestrated, and they already blew their chance when Froome was on the ropes in Asturias, but insiders were saying Wednesday that both were smarting from Contador’s decision not to race the world championships. When Contador has raced the worlds, he’s been a huge positive influence. His decision not to race in Ponferrada, when both Rodríguez and Valverde are lining up as favorites, could provoke the pair to actually work together. Their immediate target remains Froome, but if Contador falters, everyone will start to pile on. For Contador to lose this Vuelta, he’d almost need to have a “perfect storm” of “mala suerte” to hit him all at once in the final stages: Froome attacks, Contador punctures, Valverde and Rodríguez pile on, and Contador’s legs falter. That would bring it all down to the final-day time trial in Santiago.

That’s just the scenario that Contador and Tinkoff-Saxo will be working night and day to avoid over the next four days before Sunday’s finale.

FILED UNDER: News / Road / Vuelta a España TAGS: Alberto Contador / Vuelta a España

Andrew Hood

Andrew Hood cut his journalistic teeth at Colorado dailies before the web boom opened the door to European cycling in the mid-1990s. Hood has covered every Tour de France since 1996 and has been VeloNews’ European correspondent since 2002.

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